2021-04-11
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
League : MLB

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction & Preview



 

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

The Miami Marlins are 2-6 after splitting the first two games of the series against the New York Mets. They are hoping their young guys take a step after getting some experience in 2020 and have some reason to be upset after how Thursday’s game ended with a Michael Conforto hit by pitch inside of the strike zone causing the winning run to score. They have not officially announced who will be pitching but Fangraphs has southpaw Daniel Castano listed as the projected starter, who went 1-2 with a 3.03 ERA in seven games (six starts) last season.

The New York Mets are sitting at 2-3 so far this season and are trying to get the offense going after being shut out on Saturday. Their offense isn’t great but they won’t need to have much offense with who will be taking the bump. RHP Marcus Stroman will take the ball and is coming off a game against the Philadelphia Phillies where he won and allowed a run on three hits with two walks and three strikeouts in six innings.

 

Star-ling of the Team

The Miami Marlins were one of the biggest surprises in 2020 with their playoff appearance, albeit in an expanded format. One of the better players there is Starling Marte, who finished the 2020 campaign with a .245/.286/.415 slash line with four homers and 13 RBI in 28 games with the fish. So far this season, he is 10-for-30 with a pair of RBI and two stolen bases. With some of the young stars and some veteran players packed in this lineup, Marte should lead the offense to a good place in 2021.

 

Daniel Castano’s Baseball Savant numbers are from last season and he has some okay numbers. He is in the 10th percentile in whiff percentage, 16th percentile in chase rate, 29th percentile in average exit velocity, and 49th percentile in walk percentage. Castano has a four-pitch arsenal (fastball, slider, changeup, sinker) and needs to solidify his pitch mix if he wants to be successful. His changeup has a .350 batting average and a .571 slugging percentage. Castano has pitched in two games against the New York Mets last season and he pitched nine innings and allowed five runs (four earned) on 11 hits but struggled with control as he had four walks with seven strikeouts.

 

Mr Smile Joins Mr Met

The New York Mets had an exciting offseason beginning with Steve Cohen purchasing the team. The biggest splash he made was trading for shortstop Francisco Lindor, who recently just signed a massive extension. His numbers took a little dip last season as he had a .258/.335/.750 slash line with eight homers and 27 RBI for the Cleveland Indians. He is 3-for-17 with an RBI to begin the season. If he can be a force in this lineup, it can do wonders as they can compete for the National League East with a good lineup and a great rotation.

 

 

 

Marcus Stroman did not have as great of a showing as the numbers show according to Baseball Savant. He is in the 17th percentile in hard-hit percentage, 12th percentile in strikeout percentage, and 22nd percentile in average exit velocity. Stroman has a five-pitch arsenal (sinker, slider, cutter, splitter, fastball) and increased his cutter’s usage percentage. Since the beginning of 2019, batters have a .292 batting average against it. He has not pitched against the Marlins in his career but has a career 4.45 ERA at Citi Field in six starts. He needs to figure out how to pitch better as his home ballpark.







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