Los Angeles Rams vs New England Patriots Prediction & Preview
Los Angeles Rams vs New England Patriots 2019-02-03 NFL,
Super Bowl 53 goes on Sunday from Atlanta and while the casual fans are ready to lay down some cash for the first time all year on the side and total, the sharps will be looking at other ways to try and earn a profit. The Super Bowl has become an American tradition shaped by parties, commercials, football squares and eating.
But this time is also about betting and one of the best ways to make money is to bet on prop bets. Some are into the exotics, like how long the National Anthem will go and the number of songs the halftime group (Maroon 5) is going to play. If you have been paying close attention to the NFL all year, the best way to cash in is to find the best values in prop bets. This is what we’ll attempt to do as we pick the SB53 props from Bovada.
First Touchdown Scorer
James White +900
James White has five touchdowns rushing and seven touchdowns receiving in the regular season. He has not scored in the postseason but still has 19 catches for 146 yards and six carries for 23 yards. He’s Tom Brady’s favorite target and I think he’s their best chance to score with a strong value. White is also +450 to become the Patriots first touchdown scorer.
First Touchdown Scorer-LA Rams
C.J. Anderson +300
Anderson and Gurley are the favorites at +300, but Anderson is getting a lot of the goal-line touches. At 235+ pounds and only 5-8, he’s the epitome of a bowling ball. He also has two touchdowns in the postseason and just started playing due to an injury to Gurley late in the season. Gurley hasn’t shown that he’s 100 percent yet so Anderson will still get a lot of carries.
Total touchdowns-LA Rams first half
1.5 Over -115
This game is being played in a dome and that benefits the Rams and their speed. Former New England receiver Brandin Cooks can fly and Robert Woods can also get vertical. The Patriots defense has been great in two games but they’ve been helped by the very cold weather. This is the same defense that ranked 21st in the NFL in overall defense and 22nd against the pass (246ypg).
Length of first successful field goal in the game o/u
Over 36.5 yards -115
Both teams have excellent kickers with strong legs. They are also playing in a dome, so if a drive stalls at the 35, both coaches will have no problems allowing Greg “the Leg” Zuerlein or Stephen Gostkowski attempt the kicks. Gostkowski has made two from 50+, while Zuerlein has made four.
Total Passing Yards-Tom Brady
300.5 Under -105
Brady has been sensational in the postseason but he’s taking what the defense gives him, which is usually short passes. New England has become a running team, led by their three-headed attack of Sonny Michel, Rex Burkhead and James White. The Rams aren’t that bad against the pass, allowing 236 yards per game but they can be run on (122.3ypg).
Total Passing Yards-Jared Goff
289.5 Under -115
While I think there will be a lot of points in this game, both teams have excellent running games and I don’t think this will be similar to last season, when Brady threw for 505 yards and Nick Foles tossed for 373. New England wants to use their big offensive line to physically maul the Rams up front. The Rams have Gurley and Anderson. They don’t have Cooper Kupp and he’s a big loss for the passing game for Goff, who has thrown for 483 yards in two postseason games.
Total Touchdown Passes
2.0 Over -115
Now I don’t think he’s going to throw for over 289.5 yards, I do think Goff will throw a few touchdowns in this one. He does have just one in the postseason but had 32 in the regular season. He’s going to need to throw if his team gets behind.
Total Interceptions thrown
0.5 Over -110
Brady is not perfect. He threw two interceptions in the AFC Championship game and still won. He’s not afraid of throwing a pick. He had 11 in the regular season and let’s face it, he doesn’t have a lot of speed and other the Rob Gronkowski, doesn’t have many big targets.
Brandin Cooks –LA Rams
70.5 Over -115
Under 5.0 Receptions -110
I do think Cooks is due for a big game against his former team. He has 11 catches for 172 yards in the postseason and 80 for 1,204 in the regular season. The Rams have to get him the ball in short and long situations to utilize his speed. However, I don’t think he catches more than five passes. I think he grabs a few long bombs that puts him over the yardage total and will turn one short pass into a 25+ yard gainer.
Total Receiving Yards-Rob Gronkowski (NE)
54.5 Under -110
Gronk was a monster last week against the Chiefs but he still has just 7 catches for 104 yards this postseason with a long of 25. I expect to see Mark Barron and John Johnson on him all game. He’s limited in his agility now but can still make big first-down and red-zone catches. In that sense, I’m going under in what could be his last NFL game.
Total Receiving Yards-James White (NE)
55.5 Over -115
Over 6.5 –Total Receptions
Take this one to the bank. The Rams can’t cover everybody and Gronk has to be first priority, followed by Edelman. That will leave White open countless times and he has the ability to put together 4-5 10-15 yard catches and a handful of 5-7 yard receptions. Also go over the 6.5 receptions by White.
Team to record the first turnover in the game
LA Rams commit first turnover -120
Goff is a youngster in his first big game. He’s facing a Bill Belichick defense with two weeks to prepare for him. He’s the obvious one to commit the first turnover and could be a fumble.
The First turnover of the game?
This is one I’m going with for value. It’s possible that Goff or Gurley could fumble the ball due to nerves early on. The interception (-155) prop just doesn’t have the value so I’m taking a slight chance with the better value play.
Total Tackles and Assists-Patrick Chung (NE)
5.5 Over -120
I’m going with a veteran here, who has been around and understands how to play this game as well as anybody on the field. He has 84 tackles (in 15 games) on the season and 9 in two postseason games. But I don’t think he goes over the 5.5 against a strong running team.
Total Rushing Yards by the New England Patriots
128.5 Over Even
The Pats have become a very good running team all of a sudden led by Michel and Burkhead. They had 155 rushing yards against the Chargers and 176 against the Chiefs. The best way to keep Aaron Donald off of Tom Brady is to run right at him.
Total Rushing yards for Rex Burkhead
22.5 Over -115
Burkhead had 41 against the Chiefs but just 12 against the Chargers. He did have just four carries against the Chargers and I can see that number being closer to 10, which means he should easily go after that 22.5 yards mark.
New England Patriots Review
Los Angeles Rams Review