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League : NCAAF

HAWAI'I vs BOISE STATE Prediction & Preview



Image licensed from USA Today Sports

After being blown out by CFB Playoff hopeful BYU, Boise State bounced back in a big way with their 52-21 home victory over Colorado State last Thursday. With this victory, Boise State moved to 3-1 against the spread and the over has now hit in all of their games. Conversely, Hawaii is coming off a blowout loss to San Diego State in a game where they were held to just 10 points. Hawaii has now put up just 51 total points combined in their three road games as they are very thankful to be returning home for this. Hawaii is 2-2 ATS and the over is 1-3 in their four games.

Looking at the history between these two teams, in the last 10 matchups Boise State has come out victorious in all but one game. Boise State is 9-1 ATS and the over is 5-5. On Hawaii’s home field, Boise State has outscored Hawaii by 104 points during this time. Boise State is a 14.5 point favorite and the over/under is set at 60.


Rainbow Warriors' Slow Start

It’s been an up-and-down season for Hawaii as they began the season with a surprise blowout win over Fresno State. This was big for Hawaii as they are notoriously bad on the road. Since 2017 they are 8-13 on the road and 14-8 at home. Interestingly enough, under both circumstances, they struggle to cover the spread as Hawaii is 7-13-1 ATS on the road and 8-14 ATS at home.


Hawaii is led by quarterback Chevan Cordeiro who has been off to a tough start this season. Last season Cordeiro put up a 139.1 QB rating with an 8 to 3 touchdown to interception ratio and averaged 5.6 yards per carry. This year Cordeiro has a 125.9 QB rating with a 5 to 4 touchdown to interception ratio and averaging 3.4 yards per carry. In Hawaii’s two wins, Cordeiro has averaged 77.5 yards rushing. In their two losses, he averages 10.5 yards rushing per game. Cordeiro’s success on the ground is a huge key to Hawaii’s offense.

Hawaii’s offense doesn’t offer much on the ground outside of Cordeiro as running back Miles Reed has just 191 yards on the season. This Hawaii offense ranks 76th in rushing yards per game with 151.3 and 58th in pass yards per game at 239.5. However, these passing yards are very skewed as Cordeiro has an outlier game of 410 pass yards against New Mexico. When you take this game out of his sample, he is averaging just 182.7 passing yards per game.

Hawaii has struggled to put points on the board this season, ranking 102nd averaging 22.5 per game, and converting just 38.3% of 3rd downs. Their defense has also struggled giving up 414.3 yards per game. On the ground, they are giving up an astounding 251.5 yards per game which ranks 121st.


The Broncos Getting Healthy

Boise State was thrilled to get quarterback Hank Bachmeier back from injury in their rout ofColorado State last week. Their backup, Jack Sears, was injured during their loss to BYU and is out for the foreseeable future. Bachmeier was injured in their opener against Utah State and missed two games. However, Bachmeier wasn’t exactly needed in their victory against Colorado State. Boise State’s special teams were phenomenal with two punt blocks returned for a touchdown and a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown. The defense also was able to turn a fumble recovery into a score.


In the two games, Bachmeier has started, Boise State is averaging 47 points per game. While their running game has struggled this season averaging just 3.9 yards per carry, this could be a get-right game for starting running back Andrew Van Buren as Hawaii is allowing 251.5 rush yards per game. Van Buren has five touchdowns on the season and this is the best matchup he could ask for. While this offense has used three quarterbacks this season, Boise State does rank 18th in points per game and a respectable 47th in pass yards per game. Boise State will likely attack Hawaii on the ground as Hawaii ranks 5th best in defending the pass, allowing just 162.8 passing yards per game.

Defensively, Boise State is also phenomenal at defending the pass as they rank 9th best allowing just 174.3 passing yards per game. This team will certainly be put to the test defending the run as they rank 108th allowing 219.8 rushing yards per game.

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