Oddsmakers aren't making very much of a Baltimore Orioles upset when they wrap up the three-game series with the Boston Red Sox on Sunday afternoon. The O's are +270 underdogs, which may have some return on investment if Baltimore hadn't already lost as +298 and +248 underdogs this weekend.
There's not a ton of incentive for Baltimore to win this one sitting 44.5 out of first in the AL East, but Boston is right in the mix of the AL wild-card race and needs every victory they can get. The Sox have climbed into the top AL wild-card spot thanks to a 4-game win streak, but have plenty of company with the Blue Jays, Yankees, A's, and Mariners all within 3.5 – five teams fighting for two spots.
It Is What It Is With BaltimoreThe Orioles had a little stretch where they were a dangerous team to bet against, in the last month taking two of three from the Angels, winning a series in the Bronx against the Yankees, and splitting a 4-game set with Kansas City. Those days seem far in the past though as Baltimore has dropped 8 of their last 10 and these last 14 games can't seem to come fast enough.
Unfortunately, you just can't wager on Baltimore really for the rest of the 2021 season. They've got the #28 scoring offense in the majors, the #30 team ERA in the big leagues, and have no starter with an OBP better than .365 over the past week.
The one chance the Orioles would have in Sunday afternoon's contest would be a lights out pitching performance from starter Alexander Wells (1-3, 7.78 ERA). The left-hander doesn't exactly have confidence after serving up 3 HR over 4.0 IP against the Yankees last time out though. Wells makes just his 6th start of the year in this game, posting a 7.64 ERA in three away starts.
Punch In, Punch Out for BostonThe Red Sox really don't need to get fancy on Sunday – just show up to Oriole Park, get the win, and stay ahead of the Yankees who are hosting the Indians as well as the Blue Jays who are wrapping up a series at home with the Yankees. Boston plays both New York teams over a five-game set coming up this week, secure the sweep vs the Orioles and then focus on the upcoming schedule.
Even in a sure thing, the Boston price of -320 is just something you can't touch regardless of the opponent. Then again the Red Sox have taken the last 11 of 12 from the Orioles after inexplicably getting swept in three games at Fenway Park in the opening series of the year.
Maybe we do just go all-in on Boston since Nathan Eovaldi (10-8, 3.52 ERA) gets the start and with the Sox winning the last five times he's taken the mound. Eovaldi has allowed 2 ER or less in five of his last six starts, is 6-3 with a 2.88 ERA at home and allowed just 1 ER over 5.1 IP in his lone start against Baltimore this season.
- Red Sox are 5-1 last 6 home games vs. LH starter
- Red Sox are 11-5 last 16 home games
- Orioles are 13-43 last 56 road games
- Orioles are 1-6 last 7 Sunday games